From the comments on Silicon Valley - Dan Gillmor's eJournal - Four More Years, an interesting perspective (reproduced here in full as there is there is no direct link to it on that page):
Posted by: engineer_scotty on November 3, 2004 09:55 AM
The Apogee of the Republicans
An incumbent president from Texas wins election to his second term in office. His opponent--a prominent Congressmen. His first term was marked by a grave national tragedy, and the involvement by the United States in a controversial foreign war (one ostensibly waged on behalf of the people there, who by and large wanted no part of the US). His party had dominated the Presidenency for an entire generation--other than a two-term administration by a moderate of the opposing party, whose VP subsequently lost a close election--and controls both houses of Congress. The president--whose first term already was marked with sweeping legislation that resulted in great social upheaval--plans even more massive changes in his second term. With control of Congress, it appears the opposition party is unable to stop him. There is talk of an enduring political dynasty being created, and that the other major political party might well be on its way to irrelevance.
George Bush, 2004?
Nope. LBJ, 1964.
What happened four years later? That same president left office in disgrace, and would be dead within five years. The war in Vietnam was well on its way to being the quagmire we all remember. And the unstoppable political juggernaut that was the Democrats in the 60s? Split into two different factions (the blue-dog dems and the "liberals"), who strongly distrusted each other and still do today. The other party, preying on this distrust, began the assimilation of many Democratic faithful into its ranks--a process which has been ongoing until now.
What does this have to do with 2004? It's amazing how many of the mistakes of LBJ have been repeated by this administration. From the machine politics, to the foreign misadventures, to the gross disregard of the opposition party's concerns, to the mistaken belief that being feared equates to being loved, George Bush is well on his way to being the Republican equivalent of LBJ. Of course, all could go well for Dubya--the Iraqi resistance could be smashed, the economy might boom, and Osama bin Laden's head might be mounted on a pike in the Oval Office. In which case this analogy would fail spectacularly. But I doubt it.
This election, due to the constant overreaching of this administration, might well mark the end of the current Republican era of dominance in US politics, just as the second Johnson administration was the apogee for the Democratic machine that was launched in 1932 with the election of FDR. The excesses of LBJ (many of which I agree with, but which prompted a huge backlash nonetheless) launched a rightward shift in US politics that has continued unabated since.
In short, if the Republicans are not careful, this election could be the end of the current conservative era; not the beginning. But you wouldn't know it from reading the paper (or the blogs, or listening to talk radio or watching the TV) today in 2004.
Just like you wouldn't have known what was about to come in 1964.
engineer_scotty
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